ISRAEL – It is time to see what are the betting odds and polls predict for the Eurovision Song Contest. Why did we choose this day to make a review? Because now all promo activities are over and the parties all over Europe concluded. Let’s see if the promo activities of the participants and their attendance in the various parties (from Amsterdam to Moscow) benefited them at all. The conclusion comest the end of this post.
OVERALL BETTING ODDS
For the first semi final: Greece, Cyprus, Iceland, Hungary, Slovenia, Serbia, Czech Republic, Australia, Estonia and Belgium
For the second semi final: The Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Azerbaijan, Malta, Armenia, Norway, North Macedonia and Denmark.
For the final The Netherlands and Russia remain the favourites followed closely by Switzerland
THE RABI INTERACTIVE PREDICTION
Duncan Laurence is the most predicted artist to win the Eurovision Song Contest in May followed by Mahmood and Luca Hänni. Rabbi Interactive, the company behind the official Eurovision prediction game, has revealed some additional information on the predictions submitted, which show that most voters have low faith in the song that represents their own country. The exception is with The Netherlands and Sweden – fans of these countries gave own song first place. It is also not the case with Israel – European fans rank Kobi Merimi as 18th. The Israelis are more optimistic and expect him to reach 8th place. “Home” is particularly disliked by Russians who rank it 34th, Poles give it 31st place, British fans – 28th and French 27th, Dutch 22nd and German – 20th.
On YouTube, Italy leads the views count with more than 67,5 million followed by France with 13 million and The Netherlands with more than 5 million views. On Spotify, Italy leads the streamings with more than 43 million ones, followed by Sweden with 13,2 million and The Netherlands with 0,9 million streams.
Our own voting poll has now more than 100k unique votes and the current standings for the two semi finals have as follow (remember you can vote and edit your vote for the semi finals here – voting for the grand final will kick off immediately when the second semi final is concluded).
For the first semi final our voters predict: Greece, Cyrus, Belgium, Iceland, Slovenia, Portugal, Australia, Hungary, Czech Republic and Estonia.
For the second semi final our voters predict: The Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Romania, Malta, Armenia, Denmark and Albania.
THE FAN CLUBS
The OGAE International poll current standings predict Italy to win the contest a the moment, followed by The Netherlands and Switzerland. According to the fans the qualifiers are:
First semi final: Cyprus, Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Belgium, Slovenia, San Marino, Poland, Estonia, Hungary.
Second semi final: The Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Azerbaijan, Malta, Denmark, Armenia, Albania.
The current standings for INFE International club members The Netherlands is currently the winner of Eurovision 2019 followed by Italy and Switzerland. Club members across Europe predict the following qualifiers for the semi finals
For the first semi final: Cyprus, Iceland, Greece, Albania, Hungary, Portugal, Slovenia, Belgium, Lithuania and Poland.
For the second semi final: The Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Sweden, Malta, Azerbaijan, Norway, Albania, North Macedonia and Ireland.
Germany, Finland, Norway and Iceland conduct their annual preview shows with various guests voting for the participating songs in groups. The current standings for the 2019 Eurovision participants in their shows have as follow (regarding the victory of Eurovision 2019).
In Germany: Italy, The Netherlands and Switzerland topped the preview voting followed by Cyprus and Malta.
In Iceland: Iceland and Czech Public won the first two shows of the previews (show still ongoing)
In Finland: Iceland and San Marino are topping the preview voting after three shows aired (show still ongoing)
In Norway: Cyprus leads the scoreboard of Adresse Tel Aviv but only one show is aired so far
In conclusion:promo activities didn’t change anything in the betting odds. Bet can be placed only from specific countries and could be easily manipulate by those who have many (such as rich assist and record labels) plus influenced by the OGAE / INFE polls which usually don’t predict the exact results. So once again this year we will wait and see after the final what did the polls and bets had to say about the winner’s prediction.
We must also keep in mind that most of the countries in the bets and polls top ten didn’t do any promotional activity: Cyprus and Malta being the most characteristic ones. It will also be interesting to see how Russia will end up with a small but very target promo activity (concerts in Germany, Greece, Moscow party). It will also be interesting to see how over promoted entries like Croatia, Norway, Spain and Lithuania will end up on their way to the grand final.
The assumption of this review is that we will know who did the best prep work only when the Grand Final is over as everything will be based on the live performance during those 3 given minutes on the Tel Aviv stage.