Eurovision May 13: what the bets and polls say

photo: Farouk Vallette / /

EUROPE – Every year we make an annual post, updated throughout the season (periodically) to present you the latest betting odds for national selections and the Eurovision Song Contest.

MAY 13
Before events began in Kiev, the clear favourite for victory was Italy and today Italy still finds itself among the top three but the betting odds have seen many changes from initial predictions. Portugal lead the way in the betting odds for Eurovision, a song and performance that is hugely acclaimed by many Eurofans but unique in it’s style can be seen at 6/4 for victory. Italy finds itself in second place at 7/4, having led the betting before the semi finals, it now finds itself losing ranking in the betting odds but it has yet to perform, having automatically qualified as a Top 5 for the final. In third place is Bulgaria, a steady climber at 7/4 or 3/1 with some companies, it had been largely ignored before the semi finals but is now heavily tipped for victory. Belgium 14/1 and Sweden 22/1 follow suit, with the Belgium entry considered a good runner for victory before the semi finals. Sweden is in fifth, a good position, given it received a lukewarm welcome before the semi finals. Coming out of nowhere are United Kingdom in sixth, at 28/1 a song that continues to gather pace, as does Romania 33/1, in seventh and Croatia 50/1, in eighth. Both of these been well received in the semi finals and expected to do well in the final. France, an early favourite and another Top 5, finds herself in ninth at 66/1, while Armenia at 80/1, closes off the Top 10. Notable mention needs to be made of the opposite side of the betting odds. Spain, much questioned over it’s altercation with OGAE Spain and it’s controversial national final, finds herself in last place, at 500/1, but ranked as highly as 1000/1 to achieve victory with some companies. Just above it is Cyprus 300/1, Belarus 250/1, Ukraine 250/1 and Poland 250/1. A surprise in some of these, given the likely diaspora votes. It needs to be noted that the betting odds will continue to change as we approach the final in Kiev but if this is any indication then the likely winner may be a nation which would be new to winning or who has not won for a very long time. Remember to have a say in Currently Portugal slays both online users’ and invited juries’ voting.

BETTING ODDS: In the overall table as given by, Italy remains the all time favourite to win the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest followed by Bulgaria which is now clearly the next hot favourite to win the event. Sweden, Portugal and Belgium follow but most of the betting offices low their odds while countries like Greece, The Netherlands, Estonia and Iceland rise a bit in terms of betting odds and slightly in terms of general ranking.

PREVIEW SHOWS: More preview shows took place in Europe this week. In Finland the Swedish language program De Eurovisa – Euroviisaat concluded its reviews and voting with Italy winning the predictions of the Finn experts followed closely by Portugal and then by Finland, Belgium and surprisingly Ukraine. In Norway, the second preview show, Adresse Kiev, concluded with Israel topping the voting followed by Armenia, Australia, Estonia and Belarus! In the meantime the second preview show in Germany, the Songcheck show, awarded top voting for Italy, Czech Republic and Latvia while the public voting gave the top three ranks to: Italy, Iceland, Moldova and Cyprus (tie for the last two).

EUROPREDICTION: The poll for the two semi finals (the poll for the Grand Final will kick off immediately after the end of the second semi final) gathered more than 7649 unique voter. For the first semi final the online users top: Belgium, Sweden and Azerbaijan, the jury top Azerbaijan, Australia and Iceland and combined we can see that potential qualifiers are: Belgium, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Australia, Cyprus, Finland, Portugal, Iceland, Greece and Latvia. In the second semi final he online voters prefer the Bulgarian entry, the juries prefer the Bulgarian entry and so far the combined results predict as potential qualifiers the following ten countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Israel, Denmark, Switzerland, Hungary, Serbia, Austria and Ireland.

INTERNATIONAL FANS: The two rival fan clubs, that of OGAE International and INFE International keep their voting ongoing. So far OGAE International top Italy, Belgium and Sweden while INFE members top Italy, Bulgaria and Sweden. In both international fan club voting the number of voters doesn’t exceed that of 1k members (information mentioned for what is worth)

The Bookies: An Italian man – and his dancing gorilla – is the early favourite for next month’s Eurovision, the biggest song competition in the world. Francesco Gabbani’s song Occidentali’s Karma is the $2.20 favourite with Eurovision bookmakers, ahead of Bulgaria ($6), Sweden ($8) and Belgium ($9). Australia is on the sixth line of betting at $17.
The song, which effectively pokes fun at those who believe they can “westernise” Eastern cultures, won the prestigious Sanremo competition to earn its invitation to Eurovision. The idea for the song is supposedly based on the book The Naked Ape by British zoologist Desmond Morris. It is a catchy, modern pop song and 34-year-old Gabbani is a charismatic and lively performer – perfect ingredients for Eurovision success. And Gabbani is a winner. He was victorious in the best newcomer award at Sanremo last year with the platinum-awarded song Amen. Occidentali’s Karma immediately hit number one in Italy and Malta, number four in Switzerland and on the charts with a rocket in Spain, Germany and France.
The polls: There are no concrete polls giving a clear view of the Eurovision 2017 hot favourites. Most of them can be easily manipulated and cannot be taken seriously. The annual Europrediction is still in the phase of the semi finals as Belgium and Estonia top the first and second semi final predictions. More than 5,000 unique voters already cast their votes predicting the top ten in each of the semi finals. According to them: In the first semi final, Belgium, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Australia, Finland, Portugal, Latvia, Greece and Iceland are likely to proceed in the final while in the second semi final, Estonia, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Denmark, Switzerland, Israel, Hungary, Serbia, The Netherlands and Austria are tipped as qualifiers. The grand final poll will commence when the second semi final is over, on May 11th midnight.
The OGAE International voting: Seven national fan clubs have cast their votes so far with Italy in the lead followed by Sweden and Belgium. The results are made of hardcore fans and usually do not reflect the average Eurovision voters preferences.

The national final season is over and now the focus goes to the betting odds provided by the overall table of Although we miss one country, Armenia, the song of which will be revealed on 18/3, things remain somehow unchanged. Italy remains the hot favourite followed by Sweden and surprisingly by Belgium and … Portugal. After announcing its song, Bulgaria also topped the favourites table ranked as 5th to win the contest. In terms of the semi finals Armenia, Sweden, Greece, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Montenegro, Moldova, Slovenia and Latvia are the predictions for the qualification. Armenia is topping the predictions most likely due to the diaspora and we are somehow surprised seeing Poland and Montenegro in the list. In the second semi final we see Bulgaria, Hungary, Denmark, Ireland, Belarus, Russia, Croatia, Romania, Israel and Lithuania to be predicted as qualifiers. Croatia and Lithuania are the questioned countries in this list with Russia bringing questions on whether their entry can be used to psychologically force viewers and jury to vote in a participation which will take place inside Ukraine. In a few days will launch the annual EuroPrediction and the excitement will hit the roof.

Eurovision Song Contest is getting exciting. Italy remains the top favourite to win the Eurovision 2017 edition with Sweden following up. Bad news for Greece who dropped 9th from 4th in the betting odds one day after the song selection. On the contrary the Serbian teaser boosted the country which now features 4th in the betting odds. In the Melodifestivalen war field: Wiktoria is now the big favourite to win the ticket to Eurovision 2017 as Loreen is now out of the picture. Nano follows closely as a big dark horse. In the Norwegian national final: Elin and The Woods is now the favourites to win the 2017 edition of MGP. Definitely things will change but today’s image is clearly showing that things are moving and nothing is certain in Eurovision no matter how much of a big name you are.

The meeting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest and the national finals are updated and here are the latest. Regarding the Eurovision 2017, Italy, Sweden and Russia remain the favourites followed now by Australia, Romania and Greece. Sweden, armenia, Australia, Belgium. Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova are considered qualifiers from the first semifinal while, Russia, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Ireland, Israel, Lithuania the qualifiers for the second semifinal. Loreen is the favourite to win the 2017 Melodifestivalen with Nano following closely behind. For the fourth semi final, Loreen and Wiktoria are considered the qualifiers for the final while Axel and Les Gordons predicted to go to second chance. In Norway, JOWST ft Aleksander Walmann is considered the hot favourite for the ticket to Kyi followed by Kristian Valen. Finally in Estonia, Kerli remain the hot favourite to win the national final. In the polls: In Norway oikotimes visitors predict Ulrikke – Places to win, in Denmark our readers predict Sada Vidoo“Northern Lights” to win, in Moldova visitors vote for Sunstroke Project – Hey Mamma to win and in Iceland our readers predict Svala Björgvinsdóttir – Ég veit Thad to win.

The betting odds made a good prediction on Finnish national selection a week ago. Now let’s see what are the current standings for various Eurovision events ahead. We start with the Eurovision 2017 odds where Sweden is leading now followed by Russia, Australia and Greece still high in the bookies. In Melodifestivalen 2017, Loreen and Nano are the top favourites to win the ticket to Kyiv in the final. For the second semi final Mariette and Lisa Ajax are predicted to qualify in the final while Benjamin Ingress and Dismissed to proceed in the second chance. Sanremo Festival 2017 begins tomorrow and Fiorello Mannoia with Sergio Sylvester are considered the favourites to win the event. Though it will be clear after the final to declare who’s going to Kyiv.

With great interest to the UK and Finnish national final coming up we have interesting information to share with you. In the UK Lucie Jones is the favourite to win despite Olivia Garcia been the favourite in almost all fan polls. You can see our review and vote in our poll here. In Sweden, without any of the songs for 2017 Melodifestivalen known, Loreen is the top favourite to represent again the country in Kyiv. The Fooo Conspiracy is following next. In Sanremo Festival predictions, the bookies predict Fiorella Mannoia as the winner of this year’s festival. But the thing with Sanremo is that the winner is not necessary the artist who will definitely represent Italy in Eurovision 2017. For Ireland the bookies are not that optimistic. The odds predict Ireland to stay out of the Grand Final but we have to hear the song first to have a very first estimation. Finally, Greece remains in the top to win the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest despite not having its song selected yet.



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